Convential Wisdom in the District 19 Race
The Sun-Sentinel is running a story today by political writer Anthony Man which suggests that the coronation of Ted Deutch is practically assured, barring a “politically cataclysmic surprise”.
He points out the lack of experience of the Republican candidates, and the popularity of Ted Deutch whose State Senate district 30 contains more than half of the registered voters in CD19. He argues that just about every Democrat politician and interest group in the area has endorsed Deutch.
Read the full story HERE.
What is missing from the article is any more than a cursory mention of Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts – something he considers a fluke. Since on the national level, the spin machine is cranked up to paint that win as “anger against 8 years of George W. Bush”, we should not expect any better understanding on the local level.
It is a long shot for sure, but there are several things that could favor a Deutch opponent:
1. Ted Deutch can be defeated in this district with only 25% Republicans if he is effectively tied to the Obama Agenda – something as unpopular here as it was in Massachusetts. In particular, the Obama attack on Medicare should be driven home with 53% of the voters being over the age of 56.
2. Turnout in a special election can be expected to be low. Effective grass roots get-out-the-vote efforts can help swing this factor in our favor, but the other side knows this too and the Democrat strongholds like Century Village are easier to mobilize than the suburbs. A large volunteer force that has put aside its primary differences and united behind a nationalized message will be needed to make a difference.
3. The Democrat has a large advantage in fund raising and name recognition. When the primary is over though, the Republican candidate may be able to tap a nation-wide pool of resources, much like Brown and Hoffman. This is definitely a race where the national grass roots networks can make a difference.
If any of the Republican candidates appear at our lunch meeting on 1/27, we should ask them for their own assessment of this article and what their strategy will be to overcome the disadvantages in party identification and campaign cash. If not, there is an opportunity to see them in a Town Hall format at the 9-12 Project event in Wellington that evening.
Allen West Response to Harry Reid’s Racial Comments
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is quoted in the new book “Game Change” calling Obama a “light-skinned” black man “with no Negro dialect unless he wanted to have one.” Many found this offensive, but the democrat establishment has rallied round their Senate leader.
Allen West on the other hand had this to say:
December Club Meeting Special Tribute to Helen Wilkes
The December meeting of the Republican Club of the Palm Beaches was held at Bear Lakes Country Club on 12/9 and featured (as it has for several years now) the music of the King’s Academy Choir, directed by Mark Aliapoulios and Sonia Santiago.
Vice President Sid Lanier opened the meeting on the absence of President Joy Stone whose flight was delayed from New York. Florida House candidate (and club member) Tami Donnally then gave the invocation and led the pledge of allegiance, followed by the tribute to Helen Wilkes by Fran Hancock, State Committewoman for Palm Beach County. Helen was Mayor of West Palm Beach and a major player in local Republican politics for many years.
Lunch was accompanied by the Choir, who performed a beautiful collection of traditional and contemporary Christmas songs. The choir is made up of about 30 students from King’s Academy, all leaders in school sports, community and church activities, and academic achievements. Dressed in tuxedos for the boys and matching holiday dresses with corsages for the girls and arrayed around a huge Christmas tree in the meeting room, the scene was reminiscent of Norman Rockwell style Americana.
The new officers for 2010 were then installed and took the pledge administered by Fran Hancock. These included President Melissa Andrews, 1st Vice President John Jamason, 2nd VP Anita Mitchell, Secretary/Treasurer Bette Anne Starkey, and Assistant SecTreas. Dorothy Harper. The meeting ended with remarks from some of the candidates present including Francisco Rodrigez (running for FL 83), Tami Donnally (FL 85) and Edward Lynch (US House FL 19).
Pictures compliments of Shirley Schaff.
Glenn Beck at The Villages
Photo sequence by Boris Balaban
Great Progress on Ethics Reform
This morning, the Palm Beach County Commission gave preliminary approval to the ordinances that will create the Commission on Ethics and the Inspector General. The final vote is scheduled for 12/15.
Over the last month, the ordinances had been revised somewhat, taking the County Commission out of the loop on hiring and re-appointing the Inspector General, but they were still able to fire the IG with a 5 of 7 vote.
After a concerted effort by members of the South Florida 9-12 Project, South Florida Tea Party, and other groups, a specific proposal was created to change key parts of the documents, and requiring the Commission on Ethics to concur with the BCC in order to remove the Inspector General. The proposal also involves some changes to the basic funding approach that extends the 0.25% fee on contracts to all agencies in the IG’s future jurisdiction.
Commissioners Marcus, Vanna, Taylor, and Santamaria were apprised of the proposal prior to the meeting, and a very clear motion to include these items was made by Commissioner Marcus that was adopted by a 7-0 vote.
Much of the credit is given to Dennis Lipp, Vice Mayor of Loxahatchee Grove and a member of South Florida 9-12, who spent many hours working with the County Attorney and staff and visiting the commissioners.
A factor in the outcome must surely be the almost 3000 petition signatures that were collected from all sources, enough people to fill the commission hearing room 20 times over. Thank you to all who signed their name for restoring trust in government, including those who got out the word to our club members.
Many from our ad-hoc coalition spoke at the meeting, including Dennis Lipp, Fred and Iris Scheibl, Meg Shannon, Shannon Armstrong, Victoria Thiel, Terry Philpot, Ed Fulop, Jason Shields, Teresa Harrington, Dean Taffel, and David Wood.
Some Details from the local press:




