County Mayor Steven Abrams Anchors June Lunch

Palm Beach County is for the most part, run by Democrats. Only 2 members of the county’s state delegation (senators and representatives) are Republican, one of the county Constitutional Officers (Property Appraiser Gary Nikolits – a club member who was present today), and 2 of the 7 county commissioners. The latter includes newly elected district 1 commissioner Hal Valeche, and today’s speaker, Chairman and Mayor Steven Abrams.

Appointed to the district 4 seat in 2009 by then Governor Crist to replace Mary McCarty, he was unopposed in the 2010 elections, and now serves as the agenda-setting Mayor of the county.

In his remarks, Mayor Abrams touched on his record opposing tax increases in the yearly budget cycles (not always successfully as it takes 4 votes to prevail), and how he has pushed for spending where it is necessary, such as road maintenance. This year, as the Administrator wants to raise the tax rate to bring in $25M more than last year, blaming it mostly on the Sheriff and his $510M budget (8.3% increase), the Mayor has asked that the Sheriff “sharpen his pencil so the taxpayer doesn’t have to sharpen theirs”.

His outlook on the county economy was upbeat, as he sees rising property valuations, and evidence of economic upturns as disparate as Tri-Rail ridership (he is on the Tri-Rail board) and divorce filings in the courts.

Taking some questions, the Mayor addressed beach replenishment funding (asked by Town of Palm Beach Councilman Bill Diamond), moving to non-partisan elections at the county level (not enough votes for it), who pays for the Singer Island sand pumping plant (Town of Palm Beach), federal sequestration (not much of a county impact), putting the IG under the Clerk’s Office (just an idea – would have to go to the voters), how to rein in the Sheriff’s budget (commission has limited ability in this area).

On the somewhat controversial topic of 7/50 (the 7 county, 50 year plan), he said that some regional planning is a good thing (for Tri-Rail expansion for example), while some other areas are better decided locally. Kevin Foley, a former chairman of the Treasure Coast Regional Planning Council, cautioned that 7/50 is not “Agenda 21”, and should not be confused with that much maligned program. (For more information on 7/50, see: SE Florida Prosperity Plan ).

Prior to Mayor Abrams, we heard from Florida’s GOP National Committeeman Peter Feaman, who painted an upbeat picture of the national party (beating the Democrats in fundraising) as well as local (don’t believe everything you read in the papers).  He cautioned us to stop “eating our own” and please give Marco Rubio the benefit of the doubt, even if you oppose his immigration reform plan.

Also present were district 18 congressional candidates Alan Schlesinger and Ellen Andel, and district 23 candidate Ilya Katz.

There will be no club lunches in July and August. The November meeting will feature American Conservative Union Chairman Al Cardenas.

County Chairman’s Thoughts on Past and Future

“We got beat bad”. This sums up the message delivered by PBCGOP Chairman Ira Sabin at the RCPB February lunch.

Recapping the November election with a nod to the organization strengths of the Obama campaign and the shortcomings of our candidate, he listed what he saw as key reasons for the defeat of the GOP ticket.

Obama staffed his campaign 70% with tech people, many from Silicon valley and took their data operation to a new level. “We had Orca.”

They did an average of 56 polls a day in battleground states and had 16 million on their email list. Romney had 3 million and Orca.

(Note: Orca was the Romney campaign’s ill-fated voter tracking program that rolled out on election day without a stress test and promptly crashed and burned.)

Romney stood by and let him be defined as an out of touch rich guy who was waging a war on women. We let Obama’s “war on children” (eg. universal preschool, etc,) go without commment.

Although the GOP ticket picked up 4 points in the Jewish vote in PBC, we let the Hispanic and Black vote go where it did without contest. Romney captured a larger percentage of the white vote than McCain, but that is a declining advantage.

Assuming you buy this synopsis of defeat, which most in the audience did, his prescription for future success was sketchy.

He stressed expanding outreach in minority communities is a focus, but with 9% Hispanic and 13% Black voters in the county, a much smaller target than exists in Broward and Dade. Nothing was said about improving our local data operation, building precinct organizations that actually do something, or engaging the community on broader issues between elections. Facing the fact that PBC is a D+16 electorate and working within those constraints was not mentioned.

Candidate selection is a focus though, that is preventing willing candidates who aren’t viable from running. “There will be no primary in CD18″ he said. Of 8 people who wanted to run we told 7 of them NO”. “We can’t just let anyone run”.

Whether this will be sufficient to reverse our declining fortunes, we shall see.

GOP Chairman Candidates offer Clear Choice

The annual Christmas lunch of the Republican Club of the Palm Beaches, which featured the beautiful voices of the King’s Academy Choir, also provided a glimpse into the views, plans and styles of the two candidates for GOP County Chairman. Moderated by RCPB President Rick Kozell, the candidate were asked four questions concerning party ideals, finding qualified candidates, developing grassroots and fundraising.

Ira Sabin has been active in Republican politics for many years, and recalls working for Richard Nixon and organizing for Ronald Reagan. A New York native with a background in financial services, he is currently the party Treasurer and says he has raised over $100,000 for the local party. Ira is very much a PBC GOP insider.

Marie Hope Davis, currently President of the Republican Club of Palm Beach, has raised the funds and sponsored the GOP Victory Center in the last few Presidential election cycles. A past manager of the Peggy Adams Animal Rescue League and a Salvation Army fundraiser, Marie has experience and influence in the community at large.

Both candidates acknowledged some party shortcomings during the 2012 election cycle, particularly in the area of miscommunication and overlap with non-party grassroots resources on the same team. It should be mentioned that many of these outside groups are now rethinking their relationship to the party, and whoever becomes the new chairman will have both an opportunity to draw strength from these groups as well a challenge to appear relevant to them. Some of the grassroots have become disgusted with the party and plan to go their own way. Others plan to join the REC and try to change it from within. It is a given that very few are happy with the status quo.

To his credit, Ira has been sighted at Boca and Wellington Tea Party meetings during the year and has maintained contacts in that community. He is very invested in the current structure and political staff though, and does not hold the view that the lack of coordination, abdication of control to the Romney campaign, and weak precinct organization was the fault of staff and current leadership. He does say that he would not relinquish control to any future campaign on his watch. His style is top-down, the buck stops here. He sees the Chairman as the decision maker and is not a fan of lots of committees and advisory panels.

Marie on the other hand, believes in collaborative leadership – that the collective wisdom of the REC and community leaders she would recruit for board positions are needed for the future of the county party. She has made a stronger pitch to the grassroots groups, even to the extent of expanding the REC scope to include 912 and other groups, and would endeavor to get all these organizations to work as a team. “All elections are local” she believes, and it takes the attention and effort of those both in the REC and in the community to win them.

Ira presents his skills, knowledge and passion as the key qualifications for the job. Marie sees herself as more well-rounded – a CEO rather than an expert. The candidates are different enough to present a clear choice to the voters on the REC.

As we close out 2012, GOP party registration is not much more than it was when George W. Bush was elected in 2000, and as a percentage has fallen from 35% to 29%. By contrast, Democrat registrations have grown 30% in numbers, and as a percentage have stayed at about 45%. The growth group is independents who are expected to exceed Republican registrations by 2014. A much higher percentage (estimated at 42%) of these independents voted for Romney than for any other Republican Presidential candidate in the last 12 years. Few of them voted for down ticket Republicans though. Fixing that problem, either by converting registrations or by appealing to the independents directly is a task for the new chairman. Who is best equipped to deal with that issue?

Ellyn Bogdanoff highlights June Lunch

The June meeting at Bear Lakes featured Senator Ellyn Bogdanoff.

Ellyn currently represents the Palm Beach and Broward coastal district 25, that has been busted up in the new redistricting scheme. The new district 34 contains a shorter piece of coastline and some heavily Democrat inland areas (including King’s Point), and the Republican nominee will face another sitting Senator, Maria Sachs. Senate redistricting went through several iterations, and ultimately the Florida Supreme Court forced the change that turned a reasonably safe Republican district to a D+9 uphill challenge.

One of the Supreme Court Justices that is on the ballot for retention this year, Barbara Pariente, a proponent of the changes, ended up at a table with Ellyn at an event earlier in the year and the Senator had some amusing remarks about how that went.

Ellyn talked about the race and the advantages she brings over Maria Sachs, in spite of the deficit in party registration. If you remember the effective 2010 campaign she ran against Carl Domino in the primary and Kelly Skidmore in the general – both with a margin of 16% or more, she will be a formidable competitor.

The Senator then gave a short legislative update, and took a few questions. One controversial bill with which she was closely associated involved the expansion of casino gambling in the state. The bill, called it the “largest expansion of gambling in Florida History” by much of the media, was ultimately withdrawn. Ellyn cast it in a different light, expaining that it was about tourism and an expansion of the convention business in the state, by building a set of resorts in which gambling was only one factor. The Orlando area (the guy with the glove and three fingers), was not too keen on the idea of building a convention magnet in the Miami area that would compete with them, and that was the backdrop against which it was decided. Given the new Senate President is not a supporter, she did not think the bill would come up again in the next session.

Also at the meeting were candidates Tami Donnally (H86), Fran Hancock (State Committeewoman) and Cindy Tindell (State Committeewoman), and a surrogate for Pat Rooney (H85).

Who’s on the Ballot on August 14?

There is something for everyone on the ballot in August, regardless of your party affiliation. Look over the list below, then go to our Voter’s Guide to learn about the candidates and view the district maps.

Keep in mind that August elections are low turnout affairs, so your vote will count for more than in the November election. In 2010 for example, 377K people in the county voted in November, but only 127K in August.

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ALL VOTERS can vote in the non-partisan and/or “universal primary” races which include:
(* indicates incumbent, write-ins not listed)

• Sheriff (Ric Bradshaw*, Joe Talley, Cleamond Walker)
• Property Appraiser (Gary Nikolits*, Robert Weinroth)
• Clerk and Comptroller (Sharon Bock*, Lisa Epstein) (universal primary)
• Supervisor of Elections (Susan Bucher*, Woodie McDuffie, Coneste Succe)
• 15th Circuit Judge Group 2 (Timothy McCarthy*, Jody Lane)
• 15th Circuit Judge Group 9 (Ron Alvarez*, Jaimie Goodman)
• 15th Circuit Judge Group 26 (James L. Martz*, Margherita Downey)
• County Court Judge Group 4 (Peter M. Evans, Kenneth Lemoine)
• County Court Judge Group 6 (Edward A. Garrison, Jane F. Sullivan)

plus the following if you live in these districts:

• State House District 87 (Dave Kerner, Mike Rios) (universal primary)
• State House District 88 (Charles Bantel, Evelyn Garcia, Bobby Powell, Nikasha Wells) (universal primary)
• School Board District 1 (Robert Bittenbinder, Michael Howard, Christine Jax, Lowell Levine, Michael Murgio)

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If you are a REPUBLICAN, you can also vote for:

• US Senate (Connie Mack, Ron McNeil, Mike McCalister, Marielena Stuart, Dave Weldon)
• GOP State Committeewoman (Fran Hancock*, Cindy Tindell)
• GOP State Committeeman (Peter Feaman*, Corey Brisson)

plus the following if you live in these districts:

• Congressional District 18 (Allen West, Robert Crowder)
• State Senate District 25 (Melanie Peterson, Geoff Sommers)
• State Senate District 34 (Ellyn Bogdanoff, Mike Lameyer)
• State House District 82 (Carl Domino, Mary Lynn Magar, John Milton, John Pasqualone, Calvin Turnquest)
• County Commission District 1 (Dan Amero, Harry Gaboian, Hal Valeche)

Is the Senate Race Over?

With George LeMieux quitting the Senate race and endorsing Connie Mack IV, is the race over?

Senator LeMieux listed two reasons for his exit: 1) RPOF and the “powers that be”, presumably including FreedomWorks, have thrown their support to Connie Mack, making it hard for LeMieux and others to find sufficient funds to run a state-wide media campaign against the deep pockets of Connie Mack and his supporters and 2) Congressman Mack refuses to come out and debate his Republican rivals, precluding any “free” publicity for the challengers and closing the door on any discussion of issues.

With money and media a major requirement, Mike McCalister, MarieLena Stuart, Ron MacNeil and the others would seem to be at a major disadvantage. Dave Weldon would be also, given his late entry.

The Weldon campaign plans to fight though. From what I heard today from a campaign staffer, many grassroots coordinators from the LeMieux campaign are coming over to Weldon.

In a conference call immediately following his announcement, Congressman Weldon did not particularly impress. His website was content-free, he seemed unprepared, and lacked detailed knowledge of many of the issues important to the grassroots. That has changed. He now has a well developed set of policy positions (see: daveweldonforsenate.com/issues/ ) which are clearly conservative and counter to the Obama/Nelson agenda, he is gathering endorsements (Sam Brownback, Citizens United Political Victory Fund), and stepping up fundraising.

The near term plan is to bulk up the number of small contributors to show grassroots strength and his phonebank is asking for $5-10 donations in the next couple of days to make the case.

Will he be a credible challenge to Mack? I don’t know, but it is a shame to see the primary end today with a whimper. I gave him a small contribution and plan to watch what happens. If you are not comfortable with Connie Mack as the presumptive nominee, you could do the same.

County Commission Forum – District 1 Primary Candidates

The Republican Club of the Palm Beaches was a co-sponsor of this event.

Pat Rooney Anchors May Lunch

A good crowd of committed Republicans and many candidates for office turned out for the May club meeting featuring State Representative Pat Rooney and a special appearance by Senate candidate Marielena Stuart.

Introduced by Carol Hurst who along with many of us had heard Ms. Stuart’s excellent speech at the Jupiter meeting of the PBC Tea Party, she did not disappoint. Drawing understanding from her background growing up in Castro’s Cuba, Marielena knows Communism and its early stages of socialism like we are seeing today in the US. Casting our politics as a struggle between good and evil, she “takes no prisoners” in her battle against the UN, the dangers of “sustainable development”, and the feckless foreign policy of the Obama administration.

Following Ms. Stuart, Pat Rooney gave us a legislative update of the recently concluded session. He touched on redistricting, which has now passed its court test and been cleared by the Justice Department, and pointed out that the House map was so well done that it was not seriously challenged, although it has made life difficult for many legislators of both parties. In spite of the $1.8B budget shortfall this year, he was still able to get reasonable funding for some of his priorities including beach replenishment, libraries and Everglades restoration. He also assured us that the current House will “stand its ground” to protect the law of that name that has come under fire in the wake of the Trayvon Martin shooting.

As a special surprise, long time club member Bette Anne Starkey was honored with a birthday cake, and we were treated to a patriotic song by Monique McCall.

Participating in the candidate introductions were: Fran Hancock (state Committeewoman), Tami Donnally (House district 86), Gary Nikolits (Property Appraiser), Melanie Peterson (Senate district 25), Dina Keever (State Attorney), Calvin Turnquest (House district 82), Geoff Summers (Senate district 25), and Brad Gary (Port Commissioner). A surrogate also spoke for Cindy Tindell (state Committeewoman).

Some pictures of the event:

Tim Pawlenty Opens Adam Hasner’s Boca Campaign Office

Adam Hasner anchors March Lunch

Former Florida House Speaker and current CD22 candidate Adam Hasner brought his message of America at the tipping point to the RCPB March lunch at Bear Lakes today. Adam will likely face Democrat candidate and former West Palm Mayor Lois Frankel in November in the newly constituted D + 9 District.

“Children born today could likely see the arrival of the 22nd century,” he began. What kind of a future will they experience? We are close to a tipping point now with less than half of the country paying any income taxes, food stamps at an all time high, and 99 weeks of unemployment insurance payments dividing us. What kind of world are we leaving for our children? People are scared.

This next election (“the most important in our lifetime”), is not about ideology – it is about math. Without getting our debt under control, the future will be very different.

“Both Democrats and Republicans are to blame for this situation and it must stop,” he said to applause from the group. In answer to the question about whether he would have voted (as current CD22 member Allen West did) for the debt ceiling deal last summer that led to the feckless “super committee” and the sequestration that could likely gut the military, he answered a definite NO! We must stop spending more than we take in, and we should not raise the debt ceiling any farther. Eliminating the debt should be a primary focus of the Congress.

Prior to Hasner’s keynote, we heard from CD23 candidate Joe Kaufman. Nationally known for his work against radical organizations in the US who raise money for terrorist groups, he hopes to defeat DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz. A self described conservative, he says he will have strong Democrat crossover in the district. He will need it, as the district is D + 23 (49% Democrat, 26% Republican). He must first dispatch Republican rivals Karen Harrington and Ozzie deFaria in the August Primary. Harrington faced off against Schultz in 2010, in the old CD20 (which has a lot of overlap with the new CD23) and managed to win only 38% of the vote to Schultz 60%.

Other candidates in attendance were Mike Lameyer (Senate 34), and a surrogate (his sister) for James O’Hara (House 81), as well as State Committeeman candidate Fran Hancock.

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