Reasons for Optimism – The “Defending the American Dream” Summit

This past weekend in Orlando, Americans for Prosperity Foundation hosted a conference for grassroots activists from around the nation.

With informative breakout sessions in the mornings to highlight successes on the state and local levels, and “big tent” events in the afternoon with national conservative leaders, there was something for everyone, including ample free time to “network”.

The “malaise” that affected many of us locally after the bitter results of the 2012 Presidential election has been pretty widespread, and organizers from many locations reported falling attendance at many of their events. Hopefully, that is now starting to change. Although we are still licking our wounds, conferences like this one demonstrate that there is still life in the conservative grassroots, we have leaders in the movement that “get it” and have the fortitude to take it to the President – to lead the fight against the train wreck that is Obamacare, the endless debt and deficits, the administration that cares little for the rule of law, the separation of powers, or the role of the states in our constitutional republic.

“It’s amazing what is possible in America“, said Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, when people are free – free to make their own choices, free from the suffocating regulations of intrusive government. He talked about education as the key for the jobs of tomorrow, and the success they have had in his state in shutting down failing schools and greatly expanding the charter school system which has done a lot to improve the lot of minority children. Last week, unfortunately, Obama’s Justice Department has decided to sue Louisiana to roll back these reforms and return students to their failing schools. Judging by his fiery critique of the President and his policies, it is clear he will stand up against our rogue Attorney General and fight to retain the success they achieved.

Our own Senator Marco Rubio declared “There is nothing wrong with America – but there is something wrong with this President“. The good news, he said, is that “we still have time to save the American Dream“, by reforming the tax code and eliminating regulations. “We don’t need Common Core”, he said, and he will not vote for any budget that funds Obamacare or to increase the debt ceiling without a balanced budget amendment and specific cuts.

Unfortunately for Senator Rubio, there is still a lot of anger in the movement about his role in passing the “gang of eight” Senate immigration bill. In the hall were members of Flimen with pink shirts that said “Pink Slip Rubio”, and throughout his speech you could hear sporadic calls for “No Amnesty”. Although he avoided this issue in the speech, he did address it in a smaller group that met with him prior to the session. In a hotel suite with about 40 supporters, after answering some questions about Syria, Obamacare and other issues for which he was among friends, someone in the back asked “what about immigration”. A hush fell across the room at this point and he had no choice but to address it with a somewhat lengthy justification that amounted to “the status quo is unacceptable so we have to do something“. To me it sounded like doubling down. Not good.

Then Arthur Brooks, President of American Enterprise Institute, succinctly summed up the Obama message: “Rich people have your stuff and I’m going to get it back for you.” This shouldn’t have worked as envy is not American, but unfortunately all our side had to say to his supporters was “You’re a moocher” – no wonder we lost. The words “fairness” and “compassion” have been kidnapped by the left and we should take them back and own them, because progressive ideology is neither fair nor compassionate. As a humorous and memorable side comment illustrating our difference in values, he recalled a bumper sticker seen in San Francisco – “Your body may be a temple but mine is an amusement park”.

Next up was Governor Rick Scott, gearing up his re-election bid with a positive jobs message. Recalling his 2010 pledge to create “700,000 jobs in 7 years”, he reported us as on-track, with the likelihood of 900,000 jobs created by 2018. Scott is still popular with the Florida grassroots, although his support for Medicaid expansion had a lot of heads scratching. We do still remember that he declined to create a state Obamacare exchange, though. A few hecklers in the audience periodically shouted “No Common Core”, reflecting dissatisfaction with the direction that our education system has taken over the last few years. Scott talked about his activities as a booster of the state’s business climate and his good-natured rivalry with Texas and Governor Rick Perry who was the last major speaker of the day.

A 2012 Presidential candidate until his campaign faltered early in the primary process, he is possibly gearing up for another run in 2016. Well known as a jobs governor, the record of the Texas economy on his watch has been very impressive. As he makes the rounds of the states selling the Texas miracle, he has gained the ire of many blue state governors who do not appreciate his pointing out the shortcomings of their performance or the failings of the Progressive economics.

On another theme, “All roads lead back to the states“, said Perry. One size fits all federal programs (like Obamacare) are anathema to the founding principles of this country. A favorite target of the Obama administration, whose ideology sees the power in the states to be a roadblock to their big government agenda, Texas is now being sued by Eric Holder and the Justice Department as they try to end-run the Supreme Court and re-impose Voting Rights Act restrictions that require federal permission for such things as Voter ID laws.

On the final day of the conference, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, another possible 2016 presidential candidate and clearly the favorite of the gathering gave us reasons for optimism. With the success of Ron Paul’s filibuster on drones, and the failure of gun control initiatives after Sandy Hook, the President was forced to “listen to the people”, he said. On Syria, with Obama now going to Congress for authorization, on immigration, on common core, – the people are making their voices heard and throwing a wrench into the Obama agenda. His job as a Senator, he says, is to restore economic growth as the lack of growth is related to all of our other problems. Tax Reform (“Abolish the IRS“), and regulatory reform (“Repeal Obamacare – every single word“) are the key. He sees Obamacare as the greatest job killer of all time and sees de-funding it in the upcoming budget process as the key. In answer to skeptics that see that tactic as a political liability for Republicans, he says “You lose 100% of the fights you surrender at the outset.” Standing ovations were frequent for this speech.

All in all, the speakers reminded us that conservatism is not “in trouble” as the mainstream media may have you believe, but resurgent and full of fire. With his agenda in tatters, the Obama team sees winning back the House and holding the Senate next year as their only chance to have a legacy of anything but failure. Any thought of compromise or even dealing with a Republican House is not is the President’s wheelhouse. Although 2014 will be a harder slog than 2010 when we took them by surprise, at the end of this conference it was clear that we have depth, we have tools and we have a maturity that comes from adversity and learning from the losses of 2012. Thanks to AFP and organizations like them, the conservative grassroots will have help and structure that will amplify our effectiveness going forward.

County Mayor Steven Abrams Anchors June Lunch

Palm Beach County is for the most part, run by Democrats. Only 2 members of the county’s state delegation (senators and representatives) are Republican, one of the county Constitutional Officers (Property Appraiser Gary Nikolits – a club member who was present today), and 2 of the 7 county commissioners. The latter includes newly elected district 1 commissioner Hal Valeche, and today’s speaker, Chairman and Mayor Steven Abrams.

Appointed to the district 4 seat in 2009 by then Governor Crist to replace Mary McCarty, he was unopposed in the 2010 elections, and now serves as the agenda-setting Mayor of the county.

In his remarks, Mayor Abrams touched on his record opposing tax increases in the yearly budget cycles (not always successfully as it takes 4 votes to prevail), and how he has pushed for spending where it is necessary, such as road maintenance. This year, as the Administrator wants to raise the tax rate to bring in $25M more than last year, blaming it mostly on the Sheriff and his $510M budget (8.3% increase), the Mayor has asked that the Sheriff “sharpen his pencil so the taxpayer doesn’t have to sharpen theirs”.

His outlook on the county economy was upbeat, as he sees rising property valuations, and evidence of economic upturns as disparate as Tri-Rail ridership (he is on the Tri-Rail board) and divorce filings in the courts.

Taking some questions, the Mayor addressed beach replenishment funding (asked by Town of Palm Beach Councilman Bill Diamond), moving to non-partisan elections at the county level (not enough votes for it), who pays for the Singer Island sand pumping plant (Town of Palm Beach), federal sequestration (not much of a county impact), putting the IG under the Clerk’s Office (just an idea – would have to go to the voters), how to rein in the Sheriff’s budget (commission has limited ability in this area).

On the somewhat controversial topic of 7/50 (the 7 county, 50 year plan), he said that some regional planning is a good thing (for Tri-Rail expansion for example), while some other areas are better decided locally. Kevin Foley, a former chairman of the Treasure Coast Regional Planning Council, cautioned that 7/50 is not “Agenda 21”, and should not be confused with that much maligned program. (For more information on 7/50, see: SE Florida Prosperity Plan ).

Prior to Mayor Abrams, we heard from Florida’s GOP National Committeeman Peter Feaman, who painted an upbeat picture of the national party (beating the Democrats in fundraising) as well as local (don’t believe everything you read in the papers).  He cautioned us to stop “eating our own” and please give Marco Rubio the benefit of the doubt, even if you oppose his immigration reform plan.

Also present were district 18 congressional candidates Alan Schlesinger and Ellen Andel, and district 23 candidate Ilya Katz.

There will be no club lunches in July and August. The November meeting will feature American Conservative Union Chairman Al Cardenas.

County Chairman’s Thoughts on Past and Future

“We got beat bad”. This sums up the message delivered by PBCGOP Chairman Ira Sabin at the RCPB February lunch.

Recapping the November election with a nod to the organization strengths of the Obama campaign and the shortcomings of our candidate, he listed what he saw as key reasons for the defeat of the GOP ticket.

Obama staffed his campaign 70% with tech people, many from Silicon valley and took their data operation to a new level. “We had Orca.”

They did an average of 56 polls a day in battleground states and had 16 million on their email list. Romney had 3 million and Orca.

(Note: Orca was the Romney campaign’s ill-fated voter tracking program that rolled out on election day without a stress test and promptly crashed and burned.)

Romney stood by and let him be defined as an out of touch rich guy who was waging a war on women. We let Obama’s “war on children” (eg. universal preschool, etc,) go without commment.

Although the GOP ticket picked up 4 points in the Jewish vote in PBC, we let the Hispanic and Black vote go where it did without contest. Romney captured a larger percentage of the white vote than McCain, but that is a declining advantage.

Assuming you buy this synopsis of defeat, which most in the audience did, his prescription for future success was sketchy.

He stressed expanding outreach in minority communities is a focus, but with 9% Hispanic and 13% Black voters in the county, a much smaller target than exists in Broward and Dade. Nothing was said about improving our local data operation, building precinct organizations that actually do something, or engaging the community on broader issues between elections. Facing the fact that PBC is a D+16 electorate and working within those constraints was not mentioned.

Candidate selection is a focus though, that is preventing willing candidates who aren’t viable from running. “There will be no primary in CD18″ he said. Of 8 people who wanted to run we told 7 of them NO”. “We can’t just let anyone run”.

Whether this will be sufficient to reverse our declining fortunes, we shall see.

GOP Chairman Candidates offer Clear Choice

The annual Christmas lunch of the Republican Club of the Palm Beaches, which featured the beautiful voices of the King’s Academy Choir, also provided a glimpse into the views, plans and styles of the two candidates for GOP County Chairman. Moderated by RCPB President Rick Kozell, the candidate were asked four questions concerning party ideals, finding qualified candidates, developing grassroots and fundraising.

Ira Sabin has been active in Republican politics for many years, and recalls working for Richard Nixon and organizing for Ronald Reagan. A New York native with a background in financial services, he is currently the party Treasurer and says he has raised over $100,000 for the local party. Ira is very much a PBC GOP insider.

Marie Hope Davis, currently President of the Republican Club of Palm Beach, has raised the funds and sponsored the GOP Victory Center in the last few Presidential election cycles. A past manager of the Peggy Adams Animal Rescue League and a Salvation Army fundraiser, Marie has experience and influence in the community at large.

Both candidates acknowledged some party shortcomings during the 2012 election cycle, particularly in the area of miscommunication and overlap with non-party grassroots resources on the same team. It should be mentioned that many of these outside groups are now rethinking their relationship to the party, and whoever becomes the new chairman will have both an opportunity to draw strength from these groups as well a challenge to appear relevant to them. Some of the grassroots have become disgusted with the party and plan to go their own way. Others plan to join the REC and try to change it from within. It is a given that very few are happy with the status quo.

To his credit, Ira has been sighted at Boca and Wellington Tea Party meetings during the year and has maintained contacts in that community. He is very invested in the current structure and political staff though, and does not hold the view that the lack of coordination, abdication of control to the Romney campaign, and weak precinct organization was the fault of staff and current leadership. He does say that he would not relinquish control to any future campaign on his watch. His style is top-down, the buck stops here. He sees the Chairman as the decision maker and is not a fan of lots of committees and advisory panels.

Marie on the other hand, believes in collaborative leadership – that the collective wisdom of the REC and community leaders she would recruit for board positions are needed for the future of the county party. She has made a stronger pitch to the grassroots groups, even to the extent of expanding the REC scope to include 912 and other groups, and would endeavor to get all these organizations to work as a team. “All elections are local” she believes, and it takes the attention and effort of those both in the REC and in the community to win them.

Ira presents his skills, knowledge and passion as the key qualifications for the job. Marie sees herself as more well-rounded – a CEO rather than an expert. The candidates are different enough to present a clear choice to the voters on the REC.

As we close out 2012, GOP party registration is not much more than it was when George W. Bush was elected in 2000, and as a percentage has fallen from 35% to 29%. By contrast, Democrat registrations have grown 30% in numbers, and as a percentage have stayed at about 45%. The growth group is independents who are expected to exceed Republican registrations by 2014. A much higher percentage (estimated at 42%) of these independents voted for Romney than for any other Republican Presidential candidate in the last 12 years. Few of them voted for down ticket Republicans though. Fixing that problem, either by converting registrations or by appealing to the independents directly is a task for the new chairman. Who is best equipped to deal with that issue?

Ellyn Bogdanoff highlights June Lunch

The June meeting at Bear Lakes featured Senator Ellyn Bogdanoff.

Ellyn currently represents the Palm Beach and Broward coastal district 25, that has been busted up in the new redistricting scheme. The new district 34 contains a shorter piece of coastline and some heavily Democrat inland areas (including King’s Point), and the Republican nominee will face another sitting Senator, Maria Sachs. Senate redistricting went through several iterations, and ultimately the Florida Supreme Court forced the change that turned a reasonably safe Republican district to a D+9 uphill challenge.

One of the Supreme Court Justices that is on the ballot for retention this year, Barbara Pariente, a proponent of the changes, ended up at a table with Ellyn at an event earlier in the year and the Senator had some amusing remarks about how that went.

Ellyn talked about the race and the advantages she brings over Maria Sachs, in spite of the deficit in party registration. If you remember the effective 2010 campaign she ran against Carl Domino in the primary and Kelly Skidmore in the general – both with a margin of 16% or more, she will be a formidable competitor.

The Senator then gave a short legislative update, and took a few questions. One controversial bill with which she was closely associated involved the expansion of casino gambling in the state. The bill, called it the “largest expansion of gambling in Florida History” by much of the media, was ultimately withdrawn. Ellyn cast it in a different light, expaining that it was about tourism and an expansion of the convention business in the state, by building a set of resorts in which gambling was only one factor. The Orlando area (the guy with the glove and three fingers), was not too keen on the idea of building a convention magnet in the Miami area that would compete with them, and that was the backdrop against which it was decided. Given the new Senate President is not a supporter, she did not think the bill would come up again in the next session.

Also at the meeting were candidates Tami Donnally (H86), Fran Hancock (State Committeewoman) and Cindy Tindell (State Committeewoman), and a surrogate for Pat Rooney (H85).

Who’s on the Ballot on August 14?

There is something for everyone on the ballot in August, regardless of your party affiliation. Look over the list below, then go to our Voter’s Guide to learn about the candidates and view the district maps.

Keep in mind that August elections are low turnout affairs, so your vote will count for more than in the November election. In 2010 for example, 377K people in the county voted in November, but only 127K in August.

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ALL VOTERS can vote in the non-partisan and/or “universal primary” races which include:
(* indicates incumbent, write-ins not listed)

• Sheriff (Ric Bradshaw*, Joe Talley, Cleamond Walker)
• Property Appraiser (Gary Nikolits*, Robert Weinroth)
• Clerk and Comptroller (Sharon Bock*, Lisa Epstein) (universal primary)
• Supervisor of Elections (Susan Bucher*, Woodie McDuffie, Coneste Succe)
• 15th Circuit Judge Group 2 (Timothy McCarthy*, Jody Lane)
• 15th Circuit Judge Group 9 (Ron Alvarez*, Jaimie Goodman)
• 15th Circuit Judge Group 26 (James L. Martz*, Margherita Downey)
• County Court Judge Group 4 (Peter M. Evans, Kenneth Lemoine)
• County Court Judge Group 6 (Edward A. Garrison, Jane F. Sullivan)

plus the following if you live in these districts:

• State House District 87 (Dave Kerner, Mike Rios) (universal primary)
• State House District 88 (Charles Bantel, Evelyn Garcia, Bobby Powell, Nikasha Wells) (universal primary)
• School Board District 1 (Robert Bittenbinder, Michael Howard, Christine Jax, Lowell Levine, Michael Murgio)

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If you are a REPUBLICAN, you can also vote for:

• US Senate (Connie Mack, Ron McNeil, Mike McCalister, Marielena Stuart, Dave Weldon)
• GOP State Committeewoman (Fran Hancock*, Cindy Tindell)
• GOP State Committeeman (Peter Feaman*, Corey Brisson)

plus the following if you live in these districts:

• Congressional District 18 (Allen West, Robert Crowder)
• State Senate District 25 (Melanie Peterson, Geoff Sommers)
• State Senate District 34 (Ellyn Bogdanoff, Mike Lameyer)
• State House District 82 (Carl Domino, Mary Lynn Magar, John Milton, John Pasqualone, Calvin Turnquest)
• County Commission District 1 (Dan Amero, Harry Gaboian, Hal Valeche)

Is the Senate Race Over?

With George LeMieux quitting the Senate race and endorsing Connie Mack IV, is the race over?

Senator LeMieux listed two reasons for his exit: 1) RPOF and the “powers that be”, presumably including FreedomWorks, have thrown their support to Connie Mack, making it hard for LeMieux and others to find sufficient funds to run a state-wide media campaign against the deep pockets of Connie Mack and his supporters and 2) Congressman Mack refuses to come out and debate his Republican rivals, precluding any “free” publicity for the challengers and closing the door on any discussion of issues.

With money and media a major requirement, Mike McCalister, MarieLena Stuart, Ron MacNeil and the others would seem to be at a major disadvantage. Dave Weldon would be also, given his late entry.

The Weldon campaign plans to fight though. From what I heard today from a campaign staffer, many grassroots coordinators from the LeMieux campaign are coming over to Weldon.

In a conference call immediately following his announcement, Congressman Weldon did not particularly impress. His website was content-free, he seemed unprepared, and lacked detailed knowledge of many of the issues important to the grassroots. That has changed. He now has a well developed set of policy positions (see: daveweldonforsenate.com/issues/ ) which are clearly conservative and counter to the Obama/Nelson agenda, he is gathering endorsements (Sam Brownback, Citizens United Political Victory Fund), and stepping up fundraising.

The near term plan is to bulk up the number of small contributors to show grassroots strength and his phonebank is asking for $5-10 donations in the next couple of days to make the case.

Will he be a credible challenge to Mack? I don’t know, but it is a shame to see the primary end today with a whimper. I gave him a small contribution and plan to watch what happens. If you are not comfortable with Connie Mack as the presumptive nominee, you could do the same.

County Commission Forum – District 1 Primary Candidates

The Republican Club of the Palm Beaches was a co-sponsor of this event.

Pat Rooney Anchors May Lunch

A good crowd of committed Republicans and many candidates for office turned out for the May club meeting featuring State Representative Pat Rooney and a special appearance by Senate candidate Marielena Stuart.

Introduced by Carol Hurst who along with many of us had heard Ms. Stuart’s excellent speech at the Jupiter meeting of the PBC Tea Party, she did not disappoint. Drawing understanding from her background growing up in Castro’s Cuba, Marielena knows Communism and its early stages of socialism like we are seeing today in the US. Casting our politics as a struggle between good and evil, she “takes no prisoners” in her battle against the UN, the dangers of “sustainable development”, and the feckless foreign policy of the Obama administration.

Following Ms. Stuart, Pat Rooney gave us a legislative update of the recently concluded session. He touched on redistricting, which has now passed its court test and been cleared by the Justice Department, and pointed out that the House map was so well done that it was not seriously challenged, although it has made life difficult for many legislators of both parties. In spite of the $1.8B budget shortfall this year, he was still able to get reasonable funding for some of his priorities including beach replenishment, libraries and Everglades restoration. He also assured us that the current House will “stand its ground” to protect the law of that name that has come under fire in the wake of the Trayvon Martin shooting.

As a special surprise, long time club member Bette Anne Starkey was honored with a birthday cake, and we were treated to a patriotic song by Monique McCall.

Participating in the candidate introductions were: Fran Hancock (state Committeewoman), Tami Donnally (House district 86), Gary Nikolits (Property Appraiser), Melanie Peterson (Senate district 25), Dina Keever (State Attorney), Calvin Turnquest (House district 82), Geoff Summers (Senate district 25), and Brad Gary (Port Commissioner). A surrogate also spoke for Cindy Tindell (state Committeewoman).

Some pictures of the event:

Tim Pawlenty Opens Adam Hasner’s Boca Campaign Office

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