Former Senator George LeMieux – Insights on the Economy

Former US Senator George LeMieux anchored our March lunch with his insights on the economy – nationally, in the state, and locally in Palm Beach County.

With charts that show our current economy in the worst recovery in 100 years, and the expectation of another six years to return to 2000 levels of family income, the state of our national economy is not strong. In Florida, results are mixed. We have the highest foreclosure rate (1 in 300) of any state, but there is an optimistic story on job growth. Traditional sectors like tourism and agriculture are being augmented by biotech research and manufacturing. In the county for example, we have Scripps and Max Planck, but also the production of military helocopters, and a port that can take advantage of our location on the trade routes to and from Central and South America. Our low tax environment and pleasant climate should give us an advantage over other states.

Nationally, he sees a big problem in the size of the debt. With historical low interest rates, the $200B interest on the federal debt is the fourth largest category of spending – after only the military, Medicare and Medicaid. When rates rise, and if we continue borrowing another trillion each year, it could soon reach $1T in interest and overwhelm everything else.

On a more optimistic note he gave some examples of future opportunities for Florida, including the possibility of “destination health care” where we could be the go-to place for high end health care (presumably competing with Costa Rica).

He mentioned that his new endeavor with Palm Beach Atlantic – the LeMieux Center for Public Policy is starting their lecture series this month on Thursday March 21 with former Presidential Advisor and Harvard School of Government Professor David Gergen.

Also at the meeting were Congressional candidates Alan Schlesinger for CD18 (Patrick Murphy) and Ilya Katz for CD23 (Debbie Wasserman Schultz).

County Chairman’s Thoughts on Past and Future

“We got beat bad”. This sums up the message delivered by PBCGOP Chairman Ira Sabin at the RCPB February lunch.

Recapping the November election with a nod to the organization strengths of the Obama campaign and the shortcomings of our candidate, he listed what he saw as key reasons for the defeat of the GOP ticket.

Obama staffed his campaign 70% with tech people, many from Silicon valley and took their data operation to a new level. “We had Orca.”

They did an average of 56 polls a day in battleground states and had 16 million on their email list. Romney had 3 million and Orca.

(Note: Orca was the Romney campaign’s ill-fated voter tracking program that rolled out on election day without a stress test and promptly crashed and burned.)

Romney stood by and let him be defined as an out of touch rich guy who was waging a war on women. We let Obama’s “war on children” (eg. universal preschool, etc,) go without commment.

Although the GOP ticket picked up 4 points in the Jewish vote in PBC, we let the Hispanic and Black vote go where it did without contest. Romney captured a larger percentage of the white vote than McCain, but that is a declining advantage.

Assuming you buy this synopsis of defeat, which most in the audience did, his prescription for future success was sketchy.

He stressed expanding outreach in minority communities is a focus, but with 9% Hispanic and 13% Black voters in the county, a much smaller target than exists in Broward and Dade. Nothing was said about improving our local data operation, building precinct organizations that actually do something, or engaging the community on broader issues between elections. Facing the fact that PBC is a D+16 electorate and working within those constraints was not mentioned.

Candidate selection is a focus though, that is preventing willing candidates who aren’t viable from running. “There will be no primary in CD18″ he said. Of 8 people who wanted to run we told 7 of them NO”. “We can’t just let anyone run”.

Whether this will be sufficient to reverse our declining fortunes, we shall see.

GOP Chairman Candidates offer Clear Choice

The annual Christmas lunch of the Republican Club of the Palm Beaches, which featured the beautiful voices of the King’s Academy Choir, also provided a glimpse into the views, plans and styles of the two candidates for GOP County Chairman. Moderated by RCPB President Rick Kozell, the candidate were asked four questions concerning party ideals, finding qualified candidates, developing grassroots and fundraising.

Ira Sabin has been active in Republican politics for many years, and recalls working for Richard Nixon and organizing for Ronald Reagan. A New York native with a background in financial services, he is currently the party Treasurer and says he has raised over $100,000 for the local party. Ira is very much a PBC GOP insider.

Marie Hope Davis, currently President of the Republican Club of Palm Beach, has raised the funds and sponsored the GOP Victory Center in the last few Presidential election cycles. A past manager of the Peggy Adams Animal Rescue League and a Salvation Army fundraiser, Marie has experience and influence in the community at large.

Both candidates acknowledged some party shortcomings during the 2012 election cycle, particularly in the area of miscommunication and overlap with non-party grassroots resources on the same team. It should be mentioned that many of these outside groups are now rethinking their relationship to the party, and whoever becomes the new chairman will have both an opportunity to draw strength from these groups as well a challenge to appear relevant to them. Some of the grassroots have become disgusted with the party and plan to go their own way. Others plan to join the REC and try to change it from within. It is a given that very few are happy with the status quo.

To his credit, Ira has been sighted at Boca and Wellington Tea Party meetings during the year and has maintained contacts in that community. He is very invested in the current structure and political staff though, and does not hold the view that the lack of coordination, abdication of control to the Romney campaign, and weak precinct organization was the fault of staff and current leadership. He does say that he would not relinquish control to any future campaign on his watch. His style is top-down, the buck stops here. He sees the Chairman as the decision maker and is not a fan of lots of committees and advisory panels.

Marie on the other hand, believes in collaborative leadership – that the collective wisdom of the REC and community leaders she would recruit for board positions are needed for the future of the county party. She has made a stronger pitch to the grassroots groups, even to the extent of expanding the REC scope to include 912 and other groups, and would endeavor to get all these organizations to work as a team. “All elections are local” she believes, and it takes the attention and effort of those both in the REC and in the community to win them.

Ira presents his skills, knowledge and passion as the key qualifications for the job. Marie sees herself as more well-rounded – a CEO rather than an expert. The candidates are different enough to present a clear choice to the voters on the REC.

As we close out 2012, GOP party registration is not much more than it was when George W. Bush was elected in 2000, and as a percentage has fallen from 35% to 29%. By contrast, Democrat registrations have grown 30% in numbers, and as a percentage have stayed at about 45%. The growth group is independents who are expected to exceed Republican registrations by 2014. A much higher percentage (estimated at 42%) of these independents voted for Romney than for any other Republican Presidential candidate in the last 12 years. Few of them voted for down ticket Republicans though. Fixing that problem, either by converting registrations or by appealing to the independents directly is a task for the new chairman. Who is best equipped to deal with that issue?

Ellyn Bogdanoff highlights June Lunch

The June meeting at Bear Lakes featured Senator Ellyn Bogdanoff.

Ellyn currently represents the Palm Beach and Broward coastal district 25, that has been busted up in the new redistricting scheme. The new district 34 contains a shorter piece of coastline and some heavily Democrat inland areas (including King’s Point), and the Republican nominee will face another sitting Senator, Maria Sachs. Senate redistricting went through several iterations, and ultimately the Florida Supreme Court forced the change that turned a reasonably safe Republican district to a D+9 uphill challenge.

One of the Supreme Court Justices that is on the ballot for retention this year, Barbara Pariente, a proponent of the changes, ended up at a table with Ellyn at an event earlier in the year and the Senator had some amusing remarks about how that went.

Ellyn talked about the race and the advantages she brings over Maria Sachs, in spite of the deficit in party registration. If you remember the effective 2010 campaign she ran against Carl Domino in the primary and Kelly Skidmore in the general – both with a margin of 16% or more, she will be a formidable competitor.

The Senator then gave a short legislative update, and took a few questions. One controversial bill with which she was closely associated involved the expansion of casino gambling in the state. The bill, called it the “largest expansion of gambling in Florida History” by much of the media, was ultimately withdrawn. Ellyn cast it in a different light, expaining that it was about tourism and an expansion of the convention business in the state, by building a set of resorts in which gambling was only one factor. The Orlando area (the guy with the glove and three fingers), was not too keen on the idea of building a convention magnet in the Miami area that would compete with them, and that was the backdrop against which it was decided. Given the new Senate President is not a supporter, she did not think the bill would come up again in the next session.

Also at the meeting were candidates Tami Donnally (H86), Fran Hancock (State Committeewoman) and Cindy Tindell (State Committeewoman), and a surrogate for Pat Rooney (H85).

County Commission Forum – District 1 Primary Candidates

The Republican Club of the Palm Beaches was a co-sponsor of this event.

Pat Rooney Anchors May Lunch

A good crowd of committed Republicans and many candidates for office turned out for the May club meeting featuring State Representative Pat Rooney and a special appearance by Senate candidate Marielena Stuart.

Introduced by Carol Hurst who along with many of us had heard Ms. Stuart’s excellent speech at the Jupiter meeting of the PBC Tea Party, she did not disappoint. Drawing understanding from her background growing up in Castro’s Cuba, Marielena knows Communism and its early stages of socialism like we are seeing today in the US. Casting our politics as a struggle between good and evil, she “takes no prisoners” in her battle against the UN, the dangers of “sustainable development”, and the feckless foreign policy of the Obama administration.

Following Ms. Stuart, Pat Rooney gave us a legislative update of the recently concluded session. He touched on redistricting, which has now passed its court test and been cleared by the Justice Department, and pointed out that the House map was so well done that it was not seriously challenged, although it has made life difficult for many legislators of both parties. In spite of the $1.8B budget shortfall this year, he was still able to get reasonable funding for some of his priorities including beach replenishment, libraries and Everglades restoration. He also assured us that the current House will “stand its ground” to protect the law of that name that has come under fire in the wake of the Trayvon Martin shooting.

As a special surprise, long time club member Bette Anne Starkey was honored with a birthday cake, and we were treated to a patriotic song by Monique McCall.

Participating in the candidate introductions were: Fran Hancock (state Committeewoman), Tami Donnally (House district 86), Gary Nikolits (Property Appraiser), Melanie Peterson (Senate district 25), Dina Keever (State Attorney), Calvin Turnquest (House district 82), Geoff Summers (Senate district 25), and Brad Gary (Port Commissioner). A surrogate also spoke for Cindy Tindell (state Committeewoman).

Some pictures of the event:

Adam Hasner anchors March Lunch

Former Florida House Speaker and current CD22 candidate Adam Hasner brought his message of America at the tipping point to the RCPB March lunch at Bear Lakes today. Adam will likely face Democrat candidate and former West Palm Mayor Lois Frankel in November in the newly constituted D + 9 District.

“Children born today could likely see the arrival of the 22nd century,” he began. What kind of a future will they experience? We are close to a tipping point now with less than half of the country paying any income taxes, food stamps at an all time high, and 99 weeks of unemployment insurance payments dividing us. What kind of world are we leaving for our children? People are scared.

This next election (“the most important in our lifetime”), is not about ideology – it is about math. Without getting our debt under control, the future will be very different.

“Both Democrats and Republicans are to blame for this situation and it must stop,” he said to applause from the group. In answer to the question about whether he would have voted (as current CD22 member Allen West did) for the debt ceiling deal last summer that led to the feckless “super committee” and the sequestration that could likely gut the military, he answered a definite NO! We must stop spending more than we take in, and we should not raise the debt ceiling any farther. Eliminating the debt should be a primary focus of the Congress.

Prior to Hasner’s keynote, we heard from CD23 candidate Joe Kaufman. Nationally known for his work against radical organizations in the US who raise money for terrorist groups, he hopes to defeat DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz. A self described conservative, he says he will have strong Democrat crossover in the district. He will need it, as the district is D + 23 (49% Democrat, 26% Republican). He must first dispatch Republican rivals Karen Harrington and Ozzie deFaria in the August Primary. Harrington faced off against Schultz in 2010, in the old CD20 (which has a lot of overlap with the new CD23) and managed to win only 38% of the vote to Schultz 60%.

Other candidates in attendance were Mike Lameyer (Senate 34), and a surrogate (his sister) for James O’Hara (House 81), as well as State Committeeman candidate Fran Hancock.

Encouraging Words from Ralph Reed

Faith and Freedom Foundation Founder Ralph Reed rallied the troops with an inspiring pep talk at Binks Golf Club. Jointly hosted by Palm West Republican Club, the Republican club of Central Palm Beach County, and the Republican Club of the Palm Beaches, the event was a good kickoff to election season in this very important year.

Club Presidents Janeen Capizola, Tami Donnally and Melissa Andrews respectively welcomed Ralph to Palm Beach County and GOP Chair Sid Dinerstein gave an interesting introduction of Mr. Reed, going back to their collaboration during the 2000 contested election in the county.

Ralph Reed is no stranger to south Florida, having grown up in Miami, and he gave good description of how important swing state Florida is to the outcome of the Presidential election. Touching on a number of issues, he particularly examined the recent administration salvo in the war on religion.

Although Barack Obama could very well repeat his win here as in 2008, there is a path to victory for the GOP if we all work together. In a break out session after the main event, he went into more detail about the technology that F&F is bringing to the table and what will be required to win the day.

Some pictures from Delia Menocal and Carol Porter:

Senator Nelson Calls for Investigation of Conservative Activists

Conservative Solutions to Illegal Immigration

Our October meeting featured a debate on solutions to illegal immigration in Florida. Moderated by Rick Kozell, the panel consisted of Florida 82 Representative William Snyder, Brewster Bevis of Associated Industries of Florida, and two local business owners who confront the issue on a regular basis, Richard Roth of Roth Farms, and Sean Rooney of Link Staffing. A synopsis will follow.

Pictures from Delia and Fred.

« Previous Page — Next Page »