How Safe Is Our Dollar?

Right Nights – Wednesday August 25, 2010safe money
5:30 Meet & Greet
6:00 Program Begins
Bear Lakes Country Club
1901 Village Boulevard
West Palm Beach, FL
Self Parking , CASH Bar
$5 per person 
Club Policy is No Jeans and No Cell Phones

About the Speaker:  David Chamblee

David started his career with Edward Jones in 2003 and joined Corbin Cook at Lighthouse Wealth Management in March of 2010.  David practices Austrian Economic theory and serves his clients by managing their investments along with extensive financial planning.  David believes that active portfolio management is a necessity in today’s economic environment as opposed to the widely practiced passive management.  David also writes the bi-weekly web based commentary Razor Market Trends that touches on current economic topics and goes out all across the country.  David grew up in Belle Glade, Florida and after attending the University of Arkansas to play football, David graduated from Otterbein College in Westerville, OH.  He then got his masters at Delta State University in Cleveland, MS.  After living in Dallas and Los Angeles, David relocated back to the south in Atlanta in 2002.  David was awarded the Financial Advisor 5 Star Best in Customer Service and Client Satisfaction  by Atlanta Magazine in both 2009 and 2010.

Let Data Be The Guide, But Not So Fast

One of the wisest sayings in the world of economics and investing is, “Don’t make the data fit your belief, but let your belief be formed by the data.”  Not following this wisdom has led many investors to lose a lot of money, advisers to give faulty advice and government officials to lead the public astray.  Sound research that puts agendas, financial gain and wishful thinking aside will lead you to the truth of where things stand.  By using this method the current picture is not pretty and getting less so as we look at projections forward.  By now I’m sure you have heard the unsustainable word many times.  Yes, it is the hard truth that many didn’t want to believe, but now it seems that many are coming to the realization.  Our current economic path is unsustainable.

          

Why the “But” in the title then?  Although the data tells us that things look like they can get really bad at anytime going back to 2007, you can’t underestimate the power and manipulation of governments and central banks.  Not necessarily in that order.  For example, in late 2008 the world economy started to unwind or deleverage from an economic system that allowed governments, corporations, small businesses and individuals to lever up to the sky and never really pay down debt, but just keep rolling it over.  When that limit was reached the natural unwinding/deleveraging occurred and you have yourself a credit crisis.  The natural cause and effect was upon us as banks and corporations with too much leverage started to fail.  The data that so few saw or acknowledged told us this would happen, but governments and central banks didn’t allow it to happen.  They built a dam to divert the flow of the river, if you will, through bailouts and stimulus.  This is the “But”.  The data is still telling us the same thing that it did back in 2008.  Things are still broken and need to be fixed, but aren’t allowed to be.  The data was held in limbo for two years with the negative numbers and debt becoming much worse as an attempt was being made to preserve our economic system and “lifestyles”.  Just like any problems that are put off or ignored, they have to be dealt with eventually.  If you deal with them early they are less painful.  The Bush administration at the time in 2008 didn’t give us that option.  When will we have to deal with it is the million dollar question.   I would like to think that we are dealing with some of the pain already, but I think the data would accuse me of wishful thinking.