“Black People Vote on Sunday!” – with this thought, former county GOP Chairman Sid Dinerstein laid out for us all the clues that were readily available to predict the election of Donald Trump.
Describing a conversation he had with his daughter in New Hampshire on November 7, the night before the election, Sid gave us some insights into the demographics of 2016 and how it differed from when Obama was running. While at the time he wasn’t sure how it would turn out, there were encouraging signs.
The re-election of Barack Obama in 2012 saw a turnout in the black community that exceeded white turnout for the first time (on a percentage basis). Many thought the Obama coalition would turn out for Clinton and insure her victory, but it was not to be. On the traditional “souls to the polls” day – the Sunday before the election, turnout in Palm Beach County was very heavy, but the proportion of black voters seemed to be less. (Editor’s note: In fact, 24% of the 23K voters on 11/6 self-identified in voter rolls as black, compared to 33% on 11/3/2012.) This was happening all across the country.
Another clue was the polling, much of it designed by the media to suppress Republican vote.
Zander Lurie, CEO of Survey Monkey (the company that provides much of the polling muscle for the mainstream media), was known to have contributed $600K to the Clinton campaign. All pollsters are not dishonest of course, but when you know how the boss wants the poll to come out it can have an effect.
There are many ways to diddle with poll results. One that was used was to adjust the outcome to reflect the demographics of the 2012 race. Another was to adjust where the polling was done. If I wanted to make the case that independents were supporting Clinton with big numbers, I could have polled them in Century Village. Since many “independents” have a tendency to vote just like their neighbors, independents in heavily Democrat areas will lean that way.
Survey guru Nate Silver has usually been right about outcomes, but he is an aggregator of polls, not a pollster himself. Thus, if the majority of the polls show a Trump defeat, than he was led to draw that conclusion.
An ironic side-effect of this bias in the polls was over confidence by the Clinton campaign. They had no internal polling of their own and believed the polls that were skewed to make them appear to be running away with it. As a result, they neglected to campaign in Wisconsin and Michigan, believing those states to be solidly in their camp.
Also at this meeting, we heard from Steve Hyatt who is running a “candidate school” for GOP candidates down in Plantation.
The next meeting will be April 26 for which we are trying to line up a speaker from the James Madison Institute.
If you live in Palm Beach Gardens or Jupiter, please remember their is a runoff election on March 28. Republican Joe Russo is the Republican in the Gardens Group 5 race, as is Ron Delany in Jupiter District 2.
- Steve Hyatt
- David and Tami Donnelly with Mercedes Garcia and Delia Garcia Menocal
- Sid Dinerstein
- Nancy Hogan, Col. Arthur DeRuve
The Republican Club of the Palm Beaches’ Scholarship was named after a long-standing and active member of our Club, Anne Roberts.
The Anne Roberts Memorial Scholarship is available to any full or part time undergraduate or graduate student seeking to further their education. Students must have a GPA of 3.0 or above and plan to attend an accredited college. Applicants must be Palm Beach County residents and registered (or pre-registered under 18 yrs. of age) Republicans. Current members may refer applicants for this scholarship. The deadline for this application is June 2. The recipient will be eligible to receive up to $500 to be sent to the school they will attend. Award will be presented at the monthly luncheon June 28, 2017.
Previous Years Winners
In 2016, we added two new recipients to our program, Lauren Staff and Jenna Calderaio.
Lauren graduated from Dwyer High School in 2015 and is presently at Gator Land, University of Florida in her sophomore year, majoring in telecommunications. She writes for the Independent Florida Alligator Newspaper and works for ESPN Gainesville Radio 95.3 researching sports statistics. She tells us that Law School is in her future.
Jenna graduated from Jupiter Community High School this year and is headed to Seminole Land, FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY, to major in business and entrepreneurship looking forward to a career in product development. She attended the Florida Sunshine Summit in Orlando witnessing 14 presidential candidates which supported her goal to be a strong conservative leader for the Republican Party on a local or national level.
In 2015, our new winners were Aaron Mejias, who is studying Political Science and History at PBAU and Ryan Walker, a political science major at the University of Florida.
In 2014, our previous undergraduate recipients kept up their grades to receive additional scholarship: Dylan Brandenburg, John Clark, Jason Ferrara, and Daniel Kozell. Because of the generosity of our club members, we were able to add a fifth recipient, Hanna Matry, a junior at UF majoring in Aerospace/Mechanical Engineering and a member of the University’s Rocket Team in the NASA Hybrid rocket competition.
2013 was an expansive year for our scholarship program, with 6 recipients. They went to Elizabeth Cayson, a county employee who is attending Walden University in Illinois remotely, and Danielle Madsen, who recently graduated from Palm Beach Atlantic and is working at a TV station. Three Florida State students received grants including John Clark (3rd year), Dylan Brandenburg (1st year) and Daniel Kozell (2nd year), and Jason Ferrara who is attending the University of Alabama received his third year scholarship.
In 2012, there were 5 scholarships awarded: James Schackelford in his 3rd year at Florida Atlantic University and Daniel Kozell entering Florida State University. We continued to follow John Clark, Jason Ferrara and Shirley Schaff.
In 2011, there were four scholarships awarded. John Clark attending Florida State University, Jason Ferrara attending University of Alabama, Shirley Schaff attending Northwood University and Kimberly Twoey attending Palm Beach Atlantic University.
In 2010, one scholarship was awarded to Cindy Morris, mother of 5, in her final year with 3.7 GPA at Palm Beach Atlantic College School of Education with endorsements in special education and English and a second language.
The second 2010 scholarship was awarded to James Shackelford, majoring in accounting at Florida Atlantic University. With his passion for politics, he is active in student government and volunteered for Allen West and Marco Rubio campaigns. After receiving his masters in Finance, James plans to attend law school.
The 2009 recipient, Nicole Vega, from Berean Christian High School, aspired to be a civil engineer. After much mentoring by several Club members, Nicole has changed her studies to major in Communications with a minor in Political Science at Palm Beach State College.
February’s lunch featured PBC GOP Executive Director Ryan Hnatiuk in support of the Republican candidates this March at the city and town level.
Municipal elected officials are the key to keeping Florida a “red state” – it is the farm team for filling spots at higher levels. Just next year for example, district 4 County Commissioner Steven Abrams and FH89 Representative Bill Hager are both term limited and both districts will be challenging to hold. (Abrams CC4 seat is D+1, and Hager’s seat is R+2). Good candidates for both of these races are needed.
Ryan is working with candidates in Palm Beach Gardens, Jupiter, Highland Beach and Lake Worth this cycle, but cautions he cannot help if there are Republicans competing against each other (as in the Gardens group 5 race which includes Joe Russo and Kevin Easton).
Since municipal races are typically about non-partisan issues like roads, taxes, capital budgets, development, etc. – there is really no rationale to discourage anyone from running, but Republican voters should at least know which of the candidates are on our side. For this, Ryan directs you to the county GOP website at www.palmbeach.gop.
Present at the meeting were some of the Palm Beach Gardens candidates who are Republicans:
PBG Candidates Michael Paolercio (grp 1), Joe Russo (grp 5), Ron Berman (grp 3)
Republican Party of Palm Beach County Executive Director
Join us in February as Ryan will give us the local party’s view of the political events of the recent past and what to expect going forward.
We will also be inviting candidates for the March municipal elections to introduce themselves at this meeting.
Program Noon – 1PM, Buffet starts at 11:30AM
Holiday Inn Hotel and Conference Center
Palm Beach Airport
1301 Belvedere Road
West Palm Beach, FL 33405
Pay at the door.
Make sure you submit your RSVP in advance by clicking on our link below:
Republican Club of the Palm Beaches
PO Box 2585
West Palm Beach, FL 33402
Ryan C. Hnatiuk is the Political and Executive Director of the Republican Party of Palm Beach County. He was born and raised outside of Flint, Michigan. He, and his wife of 13 years, have one son who is a very active toddler and is a full time job in his own right. Since coming to South Florida, Ryan has had the opportunity to work with various candidates, consultants and fundraisers primarily within Palm Beach County but has also consulted in the counties of Martin, Broward, and St. Lucie. He has worked in various sized campaigns from town council to congressional and county commission seats.
Ryan recently attained his master’s degree from Nova Southeastern University in Conflict Resolution and is also a certified mediator. Prior to getting his master’s degree he received his bachelor’s degree in Political Science from the University of Michigan and a minor in International Relations with primary focus being on Latin American governments and their emerging markets. He is looking to use the skills he has attained to strengthen friendships, build lasting coalitions and open dialogue to attract new people to the Republican Party.
Our January meeting was anchored by newly elected state committeeman Joe Budd.
Recently returned from Washington after having witnessed the swearing in of our new President, Joe related some anecdotes from a day filled with exuberance (like standing in line next to Diamond and Silk), and interpreted Donald Trump’s inauguration speech for us.
No one should be surprised at how Trump proceeds as President, as he has been remarkably consistent from the day of his announcement in June of 2015 right up to the executive orders he signed today. Joe was an early believer, jumping on the “Trump Train” in the summer of 2015 and serving as county Vice-Chair through the campaign.
Joe broke down the inaugural speech into five themes.
First, was an indictment of the DC establishment. He took direct aim at those seated around him and didn’t pull any punches.
Second, was the intention to transfer power to the people.
Third, a list of the policies he intends to enact – improve our schools, make neighborhoods safer, create jobs, stop the flow of drugs, insure fair trade and secure our borders. Anyone who is paying attention should note the progress on these fronts in the first days of the administration.
Fourth, a “New Vision”. Joe saw biblical references in this part, specifically from the book of Haggai, which deals with the rebuilding of the temple after a period when the people had lost their way (2:18 – “Consider now from this day forward..”).
And fifth, for all Americans, the beginnings of a national pride, where “we all bleed the same red blood of patriots”.
Joe also spoke about the state party and that he has secured a seat on the board, which along with County Chair (and state vice-chair) Michael Barnett, Peter Feaman and Cindy Tindall, gives the county 4 votes out of 33.
At the conclusion of Joe’s talk, past President Melissa Nash auctioned off some Inaugural paraphernalia that she brought back to raise money for the scholarship fund.
Next month’s meeting on Februrary 22 will feature County GOP Political Director Ryan Hnatiuk.
For those that live in Palm Beach Gardens, the club is co-sponsoring a candidate forum for the 9 city council candidates at the Gardens branch of the county library. The meeting will start at 6:15 on Tuesday, February 28 and will be moderated by WJNO radio host Brian Mudd.
Our Christmas lunch was enhanced by the sweet tones of Dimensional Harmony from Boynton Beach High School and their leader Sterling Frederick.
The a cappella chorus did a range of traditional Christmas songs, as well as some of their pop favorites, highlighted by some very excellent soloists.
The group will soon be performing at Carnegie Hall.
Mark your calendar’s for next month’s meeting on January 25 which will feature newly elected PBC Committeeman Joe Budd. Joe will discuss what to expect in the coming year, both from the Trump Administration and from RPOF.