CD 19 Election – A Look at the Numbers
In Tuesday’s election for Congressional District 19, Democrat Ted Deutch was the winner, receiving 62% of the votes cast. Voter turnout, an indication of voter interest (or lack thereof) was an anemic 15.2% of registered voters (10% in Broward and 17.4% in Palm Beach). The turnout in the 2008 election by contrast, was 73% in Broward and 72% in Palm Beach.
How did the vote compare?
Let’s look at the “liberal” vote versus the “conservative” vote in each election:
| Liberal | Conservative | |
| 2010 | Deutch: 62.1% | Lynch + McCormick: 37.9% |
| 2008 | Wexler + Graber: 72.8% | Lynch: 27.2% |
So the “conservative” vote increased by 10% for those that turned out.
Were the dynamics of 2008 overwhelmed by the candidacy of Barrack Obama which provided for the high turnout numbers, and coattail effect on other Democrats down-ticket? Absolutely not- in 2004, the turnout was 67% and 75% in Broward and Palm Beach respectively very similar to 2010.
To see if that mattered in CD19 we can look at previous elections, but there was no conservative candidate in 2006 or 2004. In 2002, Wexler won against Republican Jack Merkl with 72.2% of the vote with a turnout of 45-50% in the 2 counties. From this I conclude that the increase in conservative votes in 2010 COULD be significant, but it is certainly not a trend that will bring us a victory any time soon (barring a scandal or some other unexpected event).
How did all the grass roots support for Ed Lynch help? We know that South Florida 912, DC Works for Us, and the South Florida Tea Party were all making calls and walking precincts independent of the campaign, and many members of those groups helped the campaign directly. Hard to say objectively, but it surely didn’t hurt. Many calls were to people who were Lynch supporters but didn’t know about the election. Of course on the other side, Organizing for America ran 17 local phone banks for Ted Deutch, last weekend alone.
South Florida 912 selected a subset of the precincts in northern Palm Beach and did “saturation calling”. When the county releases the precinct vote tallies tomorrow or Monday, I will compare them to 2008 and see if there is a statistical difference between the years and contrasted with other precincts in 2010. Stay tuned.
Joe Budd’s Analysis of the CD19 Election
Video provided by Boris Balaban:
REC (Republican Executive Committee) of PBC Meeting of April 14th
Chairman Sid Dinerstein called the meeting to order and the customary business items were reviewed.
Old Business:
The Resolution to Oppose the Ballot Initiative 07-15 and 07-16 was discussed and voted upon.
The resolution read as follows:
Whereas FairDistrictsFlorida.org has filed two proposed constitutional amendments by the Florida ballot initiative process – one dealing with Congressional Redistricting (Serial No. 07-15) and the other with Legislative Redistricting (Serial No. 07-16) – to amend the Florida Constitution; and
Whereas the Supreme Court of Florida has approved the language of these ballot petitions on January 29, 2009; and
Whereas each ballot initiative has obtained the required 676,811 valid petitions to qualify for the ballot in 2010; and
Whereas each of petitions has been approved for the ballot by the Florida Department of State; and
Whereas SEIU has donated $200,000 toward getting these ballot initiatives passed in 2010, and other labor unions, individuals and groups have donated more than $2.5 million to support these initiatives; and
Whereas these initiatives, if adopted, are vaguely worded directives that will cause court challenges to otherwise valid elections; and
Whereas these initiatives are not necessary to achieve properly apportioned Congressional or State Legislative Districts;
THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED that the Palm Beach County Republican Executive Committee has determined that it must oppose these initiatives and educate voters not to support them; and
IT IS FURTHER RESOLVED that the Palm Beach County Republican Executive Committee Board of Directors provide copies of this Resolution to the Republican Party of Florida, urge the adoption of a similar resolution by the RPOF, and provide educational support in favor of its purposes.
The resolution was passed 89 to 6.
New Business:
ELECTION TO FILL REC VACANCIES:
For the first time as Chairman, Sid Dinerstein asked the committee not to elect an individual to the REC. Derek Black is the son of Don and Chloe Black. Don Black is the creator and current webmaster of the Stormfront website. According to Wikipedia, the website is considered the internet’s first major hate site, and remains one of the most popular. It is formatted from the Black’s home in WPB. Don Black was a member of the American Nazi Party in the 1970s. In 1978, Mr. Black became the Grand Wizard of the KKK. Chloe’s former husband, David Duke, was the previous Grand Wizzard of the Ku Klux Klan and is a mentor to Mr. Derrick Black. Because of Mr. Black’s youth, Chairman Dinerstein expressed hope that in time, Mr. Black will reject the teachings he has learned at home.
Derek Black told the Committee he would drop his law suit against the REC if elected. After the secret ballots were counted, Mr. Black was not approved for REC membership, 87 no, 19 yes and 4 no votes.
MARCO RUBIO:
Jeb Bush Jr, was the scheduled guest speaker to speak on behalf of Marco Rubio. He was unable to attend.
Bonnie Re reported there will be phone banking for Marco Rubio and to please volunteer.
LTC COL ALLEN WEST:
Sue Snodden reported Col. Allen West’s campaign submitted 9,000 petitions, double the number required, to qualify for the District 22 election. The grand opening of Col. West’s campaign headquarters will be Saturday, April 17, 9:30AM to 12:30PM at 140 N. Federal Hwy, Deerfield Beach, FL.
Marie Davis, will be hosting a meet and greet at here home for Allen West. $95-$175 for a paella dinner at the Davis’ home. Date to be confirmed.
BERNARD SANSARICQ:
Former President of Haiti’s Senate, is running against Alcee Hastings, Dist. 22 seat. District 22 is the poorest district covering 5 counties. Stay tune to volunteer for his campaign!
JOE BUDD:
Mr. Budd is planning to run, but hasn’t decided in which race. He is interested in hearing from you. Email him at joe@joebudd.com.
RPOF (Republican Party of Florida):
A private meeting of the Executive Board will be held this weekend. Speculation is finances, direction and a possible law suit from former Chairman Jim Greer will be discussed.
Since Senator JOHN THRASHER was elected Chair, $1.4 million has been raised. $1 million was also donated during ALLAN BENSE’s interim.
The meeting was adjourned.
Tax Day Tea Party invite video – West Palm Beach – 4/15
Florida’s Bold Move
The Florida Legislature has passed a bill that can significantly improve public education by changing the way teachers are compensated and tenured. By tying compensation to results (student learning) as is done in the private sector, it has attracted nationwide attention and admiration.
The Chicago Tribune Editorial described it thus:
The most significant piece of legislation eliminates tenure protection for teachers. Newly hired teachers would work on an annual contract that can be renewed each year. The bill also does away with lockstep annual raises. Teachers’ pay no longer would be bumped based simply on how long they’ve worked, and how many graduate degrees they’ve obtained. Instead, their pay would depend on the achievement of their students. The more improvement their students make in the classroom, the more money teachers take home. Already tenured teachers keep their job protection.
The legislature’s move has teachers unions up in arms. Andy Ford, the president of the Florida Education Association, told Education Week that his group would work to shake up the make-up of the legislature. “We’re looking toward the November elections, where we’d repeal and reform the legislation, if we can change some seats in the Senate and the House,” Ford said.
Despite enormous pressure, legislators have sent a message that they’re committed to breathtaking reform. Their boldness is refreshing, a template we hope Illinois emulates.
Read the entire article HERE.
Unfortunately, Governor Crist has not yet decided if he will sign or veto this landmark legislation. He may be doing a political calculation about the support he could get from the teacher’s unions if he decides to drop out of the Republican Senate primary and run as an Independent (which he of course said he would not do). Why else would he even hesitate to embrace this change?
Please call the Governor at (850) 488-7146 or send email ( charlie.crist@myflorida.com ) and ask him to SIGN THE BILL.
Watch Allen West and Marco Rubio on Hannity Foxnews on Tues 4/13
Hannity is on his book tour – Conservative Victory Tour. He’ll be at the Villages in Orlando, (Book signing at The Villages, 7:30-9:30pm EST) with Special Guests: Marco Rubio, Allen West, Lou Holtz, Tucker Carlson, Ricky Medlocke. Marco and Allen will also be on the Hannity show at 9pm on Foxnews channel (44).
Southern Republican Leadership Conference –
Bette Anne and I are honored to be here representing the Palm Beaches. We have seen several friends and made new ones. We wanted more access – than our small entrance fee provided -so we agreed to volunteer. We have had access to the “Green Room” as well as prime seating in the general sessions.
The energy and love of America is overwhelming here. If you’ve been to a rally or tea party event – you know what we’re talking about by energy.
Last night, we heard from Liz Cheney who spoke about National Security and Newt gave us some great nuggets as the “Party of YES”!
This morning will probably be one of my personal highlights for the program. While passing out Breakout schedules – I over heard four people talking and they were from the area in Mississippi where Bobby and I have a home. I had to interrupt and introduce myself. During our 30 minute conversation, on of the ladies asked me, ‘Is Allen West for real”? She was asking if he was genuine. BAS and I assured her he was all that and more. She was so glad to hear that. After reading a fundraising peice word for word – and watching some YouTube videos… she decided he was worth some of her money.
The country is awake. The tea party movement is all the rage and conversation here. We are being encouraged to continue to have peaceful protest and rallys. Andrew Breitbart followed Sarah Palin – who had to reiterate that she is NOT promoting violence. But Andrew continues to shake up the conversation and told us about his trip to Searchlight NV – and how all the HATE and VIOLENCE came from the LEFT. He urged us to keep the VIDEO cameras ON all the time… and remain peaceful.
This is a quick and unedited POST. BAS and I will gladly work on this later. We are off to the Sean Hanniety Book signing (we are working the event) and then to his live show. Our feet hurt, we arent eating meals – rather granola bars and goldfish but we’re having a good time. Look for us on TV tonight.
Saturday’s Energy level was HIGH. The morning opened with Mike Pence, followed by a taped address by Gov. Pawlenty. It was Rick Santorums opening and live Q&A that lived up the audience… and you could feel the consensus in the room with topics such as the “PARTY” picking candidates, Constitional Conventions and the future of the Party. He was bold in his replies and direct. Being a non-politician, I liked his directness.
Herman Cain was probably one of my favorite speakers. He was FIRED UP… and can motivate a crowd. I hope we’ll be hearing more from him as RCPB invited him to come to South Florida. His story was exciting and I will work some links into the article.
Haley Barbour, Ron Paul and Michael Steele closed the convention – beleive it or not – with a common message – we have to unite. We can not be divided as a party. The Tea Party Movements need to continue. The movement was praised by every speaker… and we are encouraged to keep the momentum.
The passion is the same, throughout the country. Constitution, We The People, Grass Roots and a UNIFED Party. Read more
Exciting Story from Capitol Hill Visit during Health Care Vote
Sent to me from a high school friend about their experience.
I just wanted to let you all know that Ron & I just got back today after a visit to the US capitol in Washington DC. We were there participating in the rallies opposing the healthcare bill. I know a lot of you are extremely concerned about what is going on in our country right now and are saddened today about the passing of this bill last night. I just want to encourage those of you who might need it today. They just won the first of many battles, but it is definitely not over. Keep praying for our country. I also want to let you know what was actually going on there and, while I can’t begin to share all of the experiences we had, I will try to hit some highlights. You won’t hear it in the news. When we got home we were surprised at the way the news media reported what was happening there.
First of all, it was definitely the most exciting event I have ever been to in my life. You have no idea the excitement you feel when you are in a massive crowd of people of the same principles and values that you share, the “I’m proud to be an American and I will fight for this country” attitudes. It was awesome. Let me tell you the crowd was massive. At one point we built a human chain of people around the Capital and still had so many people left over that we could have done it several times.
There was an elderly gentleman there that I saw several times throughout the day. I never got to speak to him and I didn’t ever see anyone else speak to him and that was because he spent the entire day Saturday on his knees with his hands lifted to the Lord and praying. I would see him alone at times and I would see him when others might join him. The most exciting time was while we were building the human chain around the Capitol, people were joining him one-by-one until they formed quite a crowd of people on their knees. It moved me so much that it brought tears to my eyes. People not ashamed to pray to our God in the open at our nation’s Capitol. Oh, how proud the Lord must have been of his sons and daughters. While we were in the human chain around the Capitol, news media from a conservative talk radio station out of Orlando, Florida wanted to interview us for a live broadcast so we were live in Orlando Saturday afternoon. They asked me why we were there and I got a chance to explain my reasons for being there. That was pretty exciting.
I met people from all over the place. The people on one side of us in the chain around the capital were a couple from Georgia and on the other side was a couple from Indiana. I met a great lady from Florida, a wonderful elderly couple from Minnesota, a wild guy from Michigan just to name a few. They were all great people. I met black people, oriental people, and Hispanic people.
I stood next to a young black girl probably in her 20’s on the steps of the Canon Building. I wasn’t aware of who was next to me at first because we were so into our “rally shouting” (I call it). When we turned and looked at each other, I hugged her and told her how proud I was to stand next to her and she told me how much she has gone through from her family and friends because they see her joining “the white people” as a disgrace and a traitor, but she told me it is worth it because she seeks the truth and it has no color. That brought tears to my eyes to think of the courage it takes for a young person to go against what society still thinks these days in search of what party actually agrees with your beliefs. What an inspiration she was to me. I was so extremely proud of her commitment and I told her so, but I was so saddened to think that this has become a racial thing to a lot of people. Why can’t we forget color and look to the Bible for how our Father would want us to vote. This is not a black, white, brown, or green issue. This is a moral issue.
We tried to visit the offices of our representatives on Saturday and did visit some, but the most impressive and welcoming office was Joe Wilson’s office (he’s the one that hollered out “liar” when president Obama was saying something in one of their meetings that wasn’t true). He had snacks there for visitors and tea and lemonade. He removed the door to his office when he took office because he said “this is the people’s office and there is nothing private here”. He’s the only one I know of that has done that. All of his aides were extremely professional, polite, and welcoming.
The least welcoming office was that of Timothy Bishop. He wouldn’t come out of his office within his office and talk to us even though we knew he was there. His aids lied and told us he wasn’t there and we could leave a comment and pointed to some paper and pens. They were very cold and rude.
There was one thing that I noticed the most and, when discussing it with Ron later, he noticed the same thing. There was a huge difference between the two parties. You could tell which party they were from whenever they would leave their building to go to the Capitol building or anywhere else in public. The Republicans wore their jackets displaying their party pin on the lapel. The Democrats didn’t wear their jackets (they all carried them over their arms). The Republicans smiled and greeted people and the Democrats didn’t smile, looked straight ahead, and didn’t speak. The Republicans were approachable by anyone (no matter the party) and most of the Democrats asked for police escort before they came out of their offices. I found that really strange because I didn’t see anyone displaying any bad behavior until late Sunday evening before the vote when some young radical people showed up and started trouble and that was after Jesse Jackson showed up. Someone told me they were trying to rally their base in opposition to what were doing. Everything was peaceful until then. After the police arrested one girl, things settled down.
We were so loud that our representatives had to change rooms because they couldn’t hear because of our noise. They moved their meeting to another part of the Capitol.
We got to see Michelle Bachman (representative from Minnesota) and Jon Voight (actor) who made a special effort to acknowledge Ron & me when we were on the side of the Canon Building. They were awesome. We got to see Carl Cameron and Greta Sustern from Fox news. We were getting good pictures until the battery in the camera went dead. Figures, huh?
On Saturday night on the back side of the Capitol, several of the Republicans representatives came out to speak to us and they wanted to thank us for our support and encouragement. They wanted to lead us in our Pledge of Allegiance, Singing of God Bless America, and then one of the representatives led us in an awesome prayer from the Capitol building. After that there was a candlelight vigil in front of the Supreme Court Building. We didn’t get back to our hotel until after 11:00, then up early Sunday. There were church services at the Rotunda in the Capitol Building and several of the Congressmen had their families with them. We were all invited.
Ron & I went to different areas at different times throughout the weekend. I told him he could always find me near the “big sign” that read “Kill the Bill” (it was the biggest one there in the middle of the crowd so I knew he could spot it easily). During one of those times, Ron was on the sidewalk between the Canon Building and the Capitol where the Congressmen and women were walking back and forth and a girl stopped one of the Congressmen to talk about why he didn’t support the healthcare bill. Ron had no idea who the Congressman was at the time, but he said he listened to the whole conversation and he was extremely impressed with this Congressman. The girl and her husband were born in Denmark and spent a while in South Africa as teachers and then moved to this country. They were in favor of the healthcare bill. The Congressman listened to the girl and then spoke to her about our founding fathers, our freedoms, and that our rights are given to us by God and not the government and that is what sets us apart from other countries. He explained to her that this bill would be taking our God-given rights and putting them in control of the government. He said he understood her concerns for healthcare, but felt it could be handled in a much better way and that, though there are millions of Americans without healthcare, there are actually only 4% of legal Americans without insurance and this bill would put the burden for this 4% on all other Americans and force them to carry government approved insurance. Ron said the thing that impressed him the most is how he spoke to her in with so much compassion and love and he wasn’t doing it for recognition because there were not more than 5 or 6 people there listening. During the conversation, the girl was so moved by what he was saying that she hung her head and was emotionally choked up. Ron said that was the most impressive thing that happened to him while there. He found out the Congressman’s name; he is Steve King, a Republican from Iowa. He found me to tell me about it and had tears in his eyes. We never see that side of our Congressmen in the news, but they do exist. We need to be praying for the Godly ones that are truly standing firm in their Godly convictions and doing their best to represent us. It is so refreshing.
Please get involved. We’ve got to do all we can to protect our God-given rights, life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, and keep this country free with smaller government and not a government that wants to control every aspect of our lives. Be encouraged; there are those still fighting and praying for our country and our freedoms.
We will win.
Action Alert CANCELLED – UPDATE – BCC Mtg 4/6
The County has made room in its South County facilities in Delray Beach sufficient to allow the Tax Collector staff to handle DMV licensing. At the same time – the state has delayed closure of the existing DMV facility by two months to permit Tax Collector Gannon to complete the transition.
I have confirmed that the agenda item 5B1-2 has been replaced from tomorrow’s BCC meeting agenda with:
5B-1 DELETED: Staff requests Board direction: regarding a proposed Lease Agreement with Larise Atlantis, Inc. for a new Lantana Service Center for the Tax Collector. (FDO) (Being replaced with one (1) new item)
5B-2 DELETED: Staff recommends motion contingent to 5B-1 to: A) adopt a Resolution authorizing a new Tax Collector Lantana Service Center, replacing the current suburban Lake Worth Branch and ratifying and affirming the Tax Collector’s other existing branch offices;..(FDO) (Being replaced with one (1) new item)
5B-3 ADD-ON, TIME CERTAIN 10:15 A.M.: Staff recommends motion to approve: providing the Tax Collector with expanded facilities to support the continued provision of driver’s license services in the South County area. SUMMARY: The State Department of Motor Vehicles has indicated it will close its Delray Beach office on July 1, 2010. The Board has expressed a desire to provide for the continuation of such services in the South County area and the Tax Collector is proposing to assume responsibility for such services. Staff has developed a proposed plan for providing the Tax Collector additional space within the South County Administrative Complex in which to perform such services. Essentially, the plan entails relocating the Property Appraiser from the Administrative Complex to the former West Atlantic Library building and renovating the vacated space for use by the Tax Collector. (PREM) Districts 4, 5 & 7/Countywide (HJF) (FDO)
While the final estimates aren’t in yet, it is estimated that the renovations to existing facilities will cost $1.5-$2 million and no lease expenses – whereas the original approach was going to cost $4 million plus commit the county to another $4 million in lease costs.
Thanks to all who contacted their commissioners. There is no need to attend the meeting tomorrow. For more details – here is an article in the Palm Beach Post.
ORIGINAL POST:
Stop the County from wasting $4 million!
Doug Armstrong represented South Florida 912 two weeks ago at the Palm Beach County Board of County Commissioners and a decision was delayed by two weeks. The time as come for us to ACT. Please read the details from Dougin his post entitled The Elevator to Tax Waste in Palm Beach County and RSVP below.
The topic is Time Certain at 10:15 am on Tuesday. The County Commission Commission meets at:
Government Center
Jane M. Thompson Memorial Chambers
301 N Olive Ave 6th FlWhen you enter the chambers, pick up and fill out a card to speak on the topic (agenda item 5B1&2) – put together a few sentences about why you think the spending is the wrong thing to do (helps if you prepare it in advance – there’s nothing wrong with reading it – that’s what most people do!). Just sitting in the audience is NOT enough!
The brief is found on page 25 of the agenda which can be found here. The staff recommends approval of the expenditure.
We need you to come out and show that we don’t want our tax dollars spent in vain!
Florida TaxWatch Government Cost Savings Task Force
The Final Report and Recommendations of the Florida TaxWatch Government Cost Savings Task Force to Save More than $3 Billion
Florida TaxWatch and the Government Cost Savings Task Force proudly announced the release of the Report and Recommendations of the Florida TaxWatch Government Cost Savings Task Force earlier this month in Tallahassee. The final report, Report and Recommendations of the Florida TaxWatch Government Cost Savings Task Force to Save More Than $3 Billion, includes 88 immediately actionable recommendations that total $3.2 billion in cost-savings for the state of Florida. The 128-page publication is the product of nine months of work by 31 distinguished Floridians, on behalf of all Florida’s taxpayers, working to provide constructive, pragmatic, and principled cost-savings recommendations and wise budget reductions.